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GeneralRe: "Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode" Pin
Nelek8-May-20 9:25
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RossMW8-May-20 12:31
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GeneralRe: "Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode" Pin
Eddy Vluggen8-May-20 12:40
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GeneralRe: "Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode" Pin
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GeneralRe: "Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode" Pin
Eddy Vluggen8-May-20 3:31
professionalEddy Vluggen8-May-20 3:31 
The 4% number was based on registered cases and deaths, with the sidenote that not everyone was tested and the amount of infections may be a lot higher; only those very sick would go to the hospital and be tested. That's nice clickbait, but not a realistic number; a model was required, because you need a general idea of the actual spread, not just the measured and confirmed. That 4% is also not the number that was used to make policy;

So as head of the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London since 2012, Professor Neil Ferguson has not been short of work. He [Ferguson] modeled the spread of all those outbreaks, advising five UK prime ministers in the process.

[..]

On March 16, around a month after the earlier interview, Ferguson delivered a bombshell 20-page paper to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
The message was clear: 510,000 people could die if the government didn't abandon its current strategy of allowing the disease to spread.


Also,
0H wrote:
New findings show a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of between 0.24 – 0.36% (as opposed to Neil Ferguson who claims the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%).
It seems like a small difference, just half a procent.
Bastard Programmer from Hell Suspicious | :suss:
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.

GeneralRe: "Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode" Pin
DRHuff8-May-20 5:56
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GeneralSound of the Week Pin
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GeneralWSO CCC OTD 08-May-2020 Pin
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