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Computer Model That Locked Down The World Turns Out To Be Sh*tcode | Zero Hedge[^]
Contains a link to github, which states;
This is the COVID-19 CovidSim microsimulation model developed by the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis hosted at Imperial College, London. It's written in C++ and requires "20 Gb to model the whole of the UK". And here[^] is a code-review from that particular software-project from a former Google-engineer.
I'm having trouble with the idea that a small mountain of countries would follow the output of a single application.
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Computer software is broken, what's new?
Mandatory XKCD[^]
It's stories like this that sometimes make me ashamed to be in software development.
The field as a whole produces buttloads of crap software while being one of the best earning sectors in the world 
Whether the simulation is correct or not, a lot of people HAVE died (and are dying) 
The schools in the Netherlands were closed, not because of some simulation (in fact, the government believed it to be unnecessary), but because the/some people demanded it.
I don't think countries followed the output of a single application, but were winging it and mostly copying each other because we're in a crisis the (modern) world has never seen before.
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Sander Rossel wrote: we're in a crisis reaction the (modern) world has never seen before.
FTFY. 
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Still a crisis 
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Well yes, but quite possibly a software-enhanced crisis.
As a Brit, I ashamed that this software is British. See also the new NHS tracking app and its various deficiencies in terms of method, openness to data poisoning, legality, lack of privacy, and probably actual effectiveness (or lack thereof).
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markrlondon wrote: a software-enhanced crisis.
Of course it is. Why? Politics. Political agenda, world wide.
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Sander is correct, this is a crisis. However, the reaction to this crisis is unwarranted, IMHO.
The world is going to be just fine.
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Responding to your earlier reply which was removed
Where do you get your numbers? According to this site: Coronavirus Disease 2019 vs. the Flu | Johns Hopkins Medicine[^]:
In the U.S, 73,431 people have died of COVID-19, as of May 7, 2020.
In the U.S., from Oct. 1, 2019 – Apr. 4, 2020, the CDC estimates that 24,000 to 62,000 people died from the flu. (The CDC does not know the exact number because the flu is not a reportable disease in most parts of the U.S.)
So that's more deaths from COVID-19 than from the flu in considerable less time.
And if nothing is done those numbers will rise even higher.
A lot of healthy people die from COVID-19 too and if there is no more room in hospitals even more people will die (that's the whole idea behind "flatten the curve").
I'm not sure if we're doing good or not, but I sure as hell am happy I don't have to make those calls.
It's choosing between the lesser of evils and we'll only know how evil our current choice was in a year or so.
I do know that just pretending nothing's going on isn't a solution and will result in many deaths, many sick leaves and ultimately, another recession, although probably not as big as the one we have now.
We'll never know what would've happened if we'd chosen differently.
Maybe COVID-19 would've stopped by itself, maybe it wouldn't and many more would've died.
I do know that the economic recession is going to take a few more lives in COVID-19's stead.
The world is going to be fine, but the millions of individuals who are hit by COVID-19 or its consequences may not be.
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Why do you think I removed the post? My facts were incorrect and it was overtly political. But thanks for pointing that out.
BTW, that is the same site I used to correct myself. 
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Glad we got that sorted out then
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Sander Rossel wrote: It's stories like this that sometimes make me ashamed to be in software development.
I haven't checked the author's names on GitHub to see if they're CodeProject members.
Sander Rossel wrote: The schools in the Netherlands were closed, not because of some simulation (in fact, the government believed it to be unnecessary), but because the/some people demanded it.
Ehr.. a lot of people also demanded no lockdown. The Americans been demanding lower taxes. We demanded a the possibility of a "advisory" referendum, and got our "no". If it is not based on a model but on "demands", then that is another additional problem. Our government would call that "populism", no?
Sander Rossel wrote: I don't think countries followed the output of a single application, but were winging it and mostly copying each other because we're in a crisis the (modern) world has never seen before.
That may be true for our government, where we copy German policies (like having a facemask in public transport, even though our own RIVM still claims they "don't help").
I can see how it requires an agile approach where you keep a close eye on the situation; but would still expect some good and convincing reasons for policies.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: If it is not based on a model but on "demands", then that is another additional problem. Our government would call that "populism", no?
It's been called democracy and "getting re-elected"
Eddy Vluggen wrote: expect some good and convincing reasons for policies.
Seriously?
I think you can come up with dozens of idiotic policies that don't make sense.
Here's one to get you started: At a company I worked for I wasn't allowed to work from home due to safety reasons and because I was a contractor.
On site I had access to pretty much everything, including documents and internet (and I think they left production passwords in config files committed to source control).
Their own people could work from home all they wanted.
They made me drive half across the country for two days to sit at the office by myself because the entire team went to the Microsoft TechDays.
When I asked the IT manager about it he said "I know it doesn't make sense, but those are the rules right now."
I could continue, like the time management decided to save money on tea which would save about €10 a year (we switched from Pickwick to home brand in a small company).
The meetings they had about the tea decisions were worth many lifetimes of tea savings.
And when you think about it, what's with dress policies?
Like I'm unable to do my job when I'm not wearing a suit!
Then there's the highly personal stuff, like religion that has no single convincing reason except some book that many think of as "proof".
Yeah, but no.
People are highly random, emotional and unreasonable
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Sander Rossel wrote: People are highly random, emotional and unreasonable
That's why government consists of multiple people, assisted by paid experts.
Sander Rossel wrote: And when you think about it, what's with dress policies?
Like I'm unable to do my job when I'm not wearing a suit!
What dress policies? Never heard any compiler give a warning on my little mermaid t-shirts. Does it say what dresses you can wear, or is it more a suit policy?
Sander Rossel wrote: I could continue
Wouldn't mind if you did; recognizable and fun 
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Sander Rossel wrote: Whether the simulation is correct or not, a lot of people HAVE died (and are dying)
But, of course, you understand that is bad mathematical logic, right?
Because if you concentrate on many other things like automobile deaths, past flu deaths, etc. then you may come to the same conclusion by just saying generalizations like, "lots of people have died".
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Yeah, but people are dying with an alarming rate and governments are trying to stop it.
And now we find that trying to stop it might be causing more deaths in the long run because of an economic crisis and people would rather have other people die of COVID-19 than not have work and/or money.
People don't live by mathematical rules, they live by emotions and people dying stirred up emotions and now people sitting at home without a job is stirring up other emotions.
No mathematical model can predict that if any model is sophisticated enough to predict such outcomes at all.
Ask a virologist and he'll say we all need to stay at home for at least a year to save lives.
Ask an economist and he'll say we all need to continue working for the good of the economy.
I'm saying that we're just winging it, despite all those models, whether they work or not.
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Sander Rossel wrote: I'm saying that we're just winging it, despite all those models, whether they work or not.
I agree with you 100% on that. However, it is interesting that the ones who make the emotional plea of "must save lives" are also the ones who shout, "We are using _Science_!" the loudest.
Also, in this case it would make the most sense that things can be opened up and the people who want to go out and the people who don't want to, stay in.
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raddevus wrote: Also, in this case it would make the most sense that things can be opened up and the people who want to go out and the people who don't want to, stay in.
I think the problem with that is that when the people who want to go out get sick, they overburden hospitals which would cause others to die.
And the hospital staff would be at high risk and overworked.
Also, you can't give everyone a choice, like what if those same hospital employees decided they wanted to stay at home?
And by saying people can go out if they like they put other people who don't have a choice to stay inside at a higher risk.
If it were so simple we wouldn't be in this current situation 
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Sander Rossel wrote: people are dying with an alarming rate
Sander Rossel wrote: they live by emotions
Exactly.
Sander Rossel wrote: he'll say we all need to stay at home for at least a year to save lives.
A study just came out that found that the majority of people with Covid WERE the ones staying at home.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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That model predicted the overall shape of the curve, which this virus has followed in every single country. Where it screwed up was the peak of the curve. The ensuing economic chaos will kill far more people than this virus.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: I'm having trouble with the idea that a small mountain of countries would follow the output of a single application.
Politics. Nothing more than that. It is not by accident they used that/those model(s).
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Destabilization of world economies. Fear, fear, and more fear. Anger, anger, and more anger. Chaos, chaos, and more chaos. I don't know, who wold use this as a political tool? I wonder.
Here in the States, COVID-19 is being used against Trump, with the promise that a Democrat President would have saved the day, and COVID-19 would not be so much of a danger.
Politics. It's always about politics since the beginning of time.
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Slacker007 wrote: Destabilization of world economies. Fear, fear, and more fear. Anger, anger, and more anger. Chaos, chaos, and more chaos. I don't know, who wold use this as a political tool? I wonder.
I prefer to assume stupidity over malice.
Same 0H shows that the Germans noticed that the kill-rate is lower than the models predicted 
Scary idea that the economic damage done might be due to a few bugs and half the world using the same data.
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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I find it soooooo hard to believe that these models were not by design, but by stupid mistakes. Remember, the people doing these models are actually intelligent beings. Yes, that is correct, I said intelligent.
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Slacker007 wrote: I find it soooooo hard to believe that these models were not by design, but by stupid mistakes. Remember, the people doing these models are actually intelligent beings. Yes, that is correct, I said intelligent.
Intelligent beings doesn't make us infallible, as the issuelist on Github proves. One of the comments in a commit is
Lots of changes to make CT more realistic. Buggy. Sooooo hard to believe that there may be bugs in software? We're on a site that is littered with examples.
It is also not "models", but "model". I can't wrap my head around the idea that this data went unchallenged and that we copy/paste the result around the world.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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