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You want the Math? OK, paper napkin time...
There are 7.7 billion people in the world.
Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%.
If 70% of people get it (the percentage estimated for 'herd immunity') then 5.39 people will catch it.
5% of 5.39 is 0.2695 billion or 269.5 million.
0.1% of 5.39 is .00539 or 5.39 million.
I would say the actual fatality rate is likely to be between 1% and 0.5%, so we are talking between 25 and 50 million lives.
That is assuming all of the critical cases get critical care.
If critical cases do not get critical care then the fatality rate among them is 100%, otherwise it is between 10% and 20%.
This means that if the health care system gets overrun you can multiply the death toll by 5-10, giving between 125 and 500 million lives.
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Fueled By Caffeine wrote: Covid-19 has a fatality rate of somewhere between 5% and 0.1%.
Seeing the official statistics I would say the % are higher.
M.D.V. 
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
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Nelek wrote: Seeing the official statistics I would say the % are higher.
It's really hard to tell, because many countries only report deaths if the victim tested positive and died in hospital, and others have other restrictions; and while the number of asymptomatic people is now known to be high, it will be a while before we know how high.
But it's possible that neither figure will ever be known with dead-on balls accuracy, so statistical analysis might prove to be more accurate (but we won't know for sure that it is).
That said, this is scientific doubt, so don't be swayed by people who misrepresent that as "no-one knows what they're talking about" doubt
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This was exemplified in one article commenting it: If a patient with covid-19 has a heart attack and dies from the heart attack, you may say that was the cause of death. But the covid-19 probably had weakened him significantly - maybe he could have survived the heart attack if he hadn't had the covid-19. If covid-19 was the underlying cause for his body's inability to handle the heart attack, should it then be counted as a covid-19 death even though the "direct" cause was the heart attack?
A similar problem: In this country, about 1000 people die from flu every year. Because of the corona restrictions, we have had very little spreading of flu this spring, so we have fewer people dying from it. A share of those who die from covid-19 would probably have died from the flu, but covid-19 protected them from that death, and instead let them die from covid-19. How should we count that?
This article stated that different countries and states have very different ways of classifying deaths.
Numeric figures other than deaths are also collected according to varying practices: Yesterday, I learned that in Norway, when you are diagnosed with covid-19, you are counted for the "Total Cases". If you do not go to hospital, but stay at home and recover by yourself, there is no system for registering that you have recovered; that is only counted for those recovering in hospital. So you will forever be considered an "active case" e.g. in the Worldometer survey, even the day corona virus is totally extinguished.
For comparing it to another virus, the measles: Before a vaccine was developed, we "did it the Swedish way", building up a herd immunity. Apparently, in Norwegian tribes, those with a genetic disposition for dying from measles had done so hundreds of years ago; kids could handle it. So whenever a kid caught measles, all his friends who had not yet suffered through it came to visit him to get infected, "to get it over with". We knew that catching it as an adult was far more dangerous. Official statistics say that every year (before the vaccine), 30,000 cases of measles were reported. That is about half of the population; approx 60,000 children are born every year. But... First, when I was a kid, everybody caught measles sooner or later. Second: It was a common thing, expected and usually handled at home. Why would we report it to the health authorities? How would we report it? I am far from sure that I am one of the 30,000 reported the year when it was my turn! I am quite sure that there were many thousand cases that were never reported. It was probably done by the doctor, and if no doctor had to be called, there was no reporting.
For the ordinary flu, there is no system for reporting that you are through it; those making the statistics simply assume that if you don't die from it, a few months later, you have recovered. Even if the authorities had set up a system for recovery reports, it would be something unfamiliar to those recovering at home; they probably wouldn't use it.
So according to statistics, next to noone recovers in Norway. The 32 cases reported are hospital cases. It looks as if six out of seven who gets through covid-19 do it in a coffin... "You have lies, then you have d**n lies, and then you have statistics"...
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Member 7989122 wrote: Before a vaccine was developed, we "did it the Swedish way"
I've been reading a lot on that in foreign news.
It would be funny if it wasn't so sad.
The "Swedish way" isn't about herd immunity, it's about having measures that are sustainable for a very long time.
"Flattening the curve" doesn't stop the population from getting the virus, it postpones it, either until we've reached herd immunity the natural way or we have a vaccine. Whichever comes first.
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Those are surprising numbers, but it's mostly speculation. Between 0.1% and 5% is a huge margin.
Still, 50 million lives is only 0.65% of the total population.
While only a small percentage, that would double the deaths this year, except not everyone who dies from COVID-19 would not have died otherwise so the actual number is somewhat smaller.
Of course, with 500 million lives that quickly turns into 6.5% which is significant.
That's an absolute worst case scenario though.
Most young and healthy people only get mild flu symptoms, if any at all, and those aren't currently tested.
However, there have been reports that lockdowns have had a minimum effect.
That would mean the virus would somehow have stopped by itself, but that's, again, speculation.
However, if you look at the deaths we're going to face in the coming years because of the global economic crisis, the measures we've taken now may actually do more harm than good.
Between 2008 and 2010, 500,000 extra people died of cancer in the USA alone, simply because they were unemployed and couldn't afford healthcare.
People are now starving in Africa and Asia because the lockdown prevents them from working and getting their daily pay.
Suicides go up in times of economic recession, in 2009 this was 5000.
Of course, 5000 is a small number, but it indicates people are generally less happy and face more stress.
That could reduce life expectancy in the long term.
Of course I don't have exact numbers of the people saved, but it's not as simple as saying "x people did not die from COVID-19 so we saved x people."
Those x people account for y deaths elsewhere and all I'm saying is y may be as high or even higher as x, but we'll probably never know for sure.
Meanwhile, it should be relatively easy to save 7 million people every year by banning tobacco (unfortunately, it's not THAT easy, I know).
All in all, I'm really glad I don't have to make the decisions here 
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Sander Rossel wrote: there have been reports that lockdowns have had a minimum effect
It can be misperceived that way because lockdown was implemented a week or two too late, in all but a few countries, and the death rates that we've been seeing are the victims who were infected before lockdown.
When the death rates drop, it's not because the virus has gone away, it's because the lockdown effect has caught up, and less people are infected.
E.g. New York should be moving into a "recovery" stage, about now (if too many people didn't badly breach the lockdown), but without the lockdown, the current figures would continue until herd immunity was achieved in New York -- i.e. until everyone who might possibly be killed by the virus is dead, leaving the thinned-out "herd" to survive (until the virus mutates, which it will, to kill another n% of the population).
A lot of people in Italy, Spain, and a few US states breached lockdown, in many cases very badly, so their recovery stages have been delayed -- and will continue to be delayed until a few weeks after everyone stops breaching, or until everyone who could die from it is dead.
Note that those delays are imposed not by the authorities, but by the life-cycle of the virus.Sander Rossel wrote: That would mean the virus would somehow have stopped by itself, but that's, again, speculation.
Not the kind of thing to take a gamble on, given that all evidence that we currently have points in the other direction.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Before banning things, consider the unintended consequences that emerged during Prohibition in the US. But politicians learn nothing, because the same consequences are still here thanks to the War on Drugs.
- rise of black markets that fund large-scale organized crime
- turf wars between crime syndicates
- poor quality products that kill users or make them seriously ill
- non-violent users imprisoned, ruining their lives
- police diverted from pursuing violent criminals
- law enforcement corrupted with bribes
- justification for an intrusive surveillance state
I could probably go on. It's also interesting to note that Prohibition required a constitutional amendment. But the US Constitution has been ignored for a long time now, so they didn't bother with an amendment to ban drugs. Recreational drugs, of course, because pharmaceuticals are a very different story.
What's "unnecessary" is also in the eye of the beholder. There are probably some things that you enjoy that are unnecessary, like having a cat when there are no mice or rats around.
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My cat doesn't kill people (while I'm awake) 
Of course what you say is true.
But isn't it weird that we're all panicking over COVID-19 while tobacco kills 7 million people every year?
No one says I'll have a COVID-19 virus please, but at the same time we smoke a pack a day.
I mean, how hard is it to not start smoking? (apparently pretty difficult...)
If people were as panicky about smoking as they were about COVID-19, smoking would be banned within weeks with some smoking license or free nicotine gum or whatever for those already addicted.
It's not about the unnecessity of things, but about the dangers.
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We don't smoke a pack a day. Individuals choose whether to smoke. Each person weighs the risk of activities in which they can engage.
If social distancing wasn't mandated, some people would practice it to be safer, and others wouldn't. There would be businesses that enforced it and others that didn't. For the most part, governments have decided to enforce a one-size-fits-all policy, which is quite typical of what they do. Some people agree with it and others think it's overdone. The trade-off is between saving an unknown number of lives and seriously damaging the economy. Governments don't want to be blamed for deaths and think that money-printing can fix economic downturns, so their choice is unsurprising.
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Sander Rossel wrote: I'm just a bit confused by the math of it all 
How dare you bring logic to an emotional situation. 
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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I'm not sure whether you're serious or not, but I hope, against better knowing, that our great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making
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Sander Rossel wrote: I'm not sure whether you're serious or not,
Just being silly.
Sander Rossel wrote: great leaders use some form of logic in their decision making
The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus. But everyone is too scared to be wrong so they are following everyone else and shutting everything down. Not sure if that is logical or not.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote: The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus. But everyone is too scared to be wrong so they are following everyone else and shutting everything down.
This!
The question is when the medicine is worse than the cure?
I don't know, but the problem seems to be that neither does anyone else.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote: when the medicine is worse than the cure?
Well, all you have to do is look below where Mark claims that not wearing a mask outside is tantamount to murder. 
I think the paranoia that has resulted from this is far worse than the virus itself. Not to mention the long term effects on the economy.
Nobody wants anyone to suffer or die, but when the media hypes something up so far that neighbors are calling the police because kids are playing outside and people are claiming not wearing a mask is murder, society has lost its mind. And Mark is not the first one, by far, to say such a foolish thing. I have seen numerous people say the same thing. I feel bad for them, I'm not sure how I could function if I felt the way they do. What would happen when a real crisis happens? How could they cope with a real crisis when this situation freaks them out so bad? The mental health issues resulting from this situation will also take a long time to fix and have a heavy toll on society.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote: Well, all you have to do is look below where Mark claims that not wearing a mask outside is tantamount to murder.
He has tendencies to drama.  But he's not alone in that.
Wearing a mask in public is cheap and simple, and most probably reasonably efficient. So why not?
Not meeting other people is obviously the most efficient way to not getting infected there is, so if you can work from home, you should.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote: most probably reasonably efficient.
That's debatable.
But why not stop driving cars? I am putting everyone else's life at risk by driving a car (well not me of course, I'm a very good driver). And Covid-19 is not the only infectious disease I could be carrying so why not mask forever? Why not close down McDonald's because it is killing people? Tobacco? Alcohol?
My point is the response to COVID-19 has been a million times that of our response to every other dangerous thing in life, many of those dangers much more threatening than COVID.
I just want to see equal treatment of dangers.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote: That's debatable.
Everything is debatable, Look at the short video in an article I posted about here: The Lounge[^]
Remember that it isn't about protecting you, it's about protecting others.
ZurdoDev wrote: so why not mask forever
Actually...whenever you're having a cold or similar symptoms, you should, not just now, but always. It doesn't cost you anything, but could save someone else.
This is what I'm talking about, anything that is simple low cost and does not disrupt society should be done.
Everything else should be up for a deeper discussion.
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Jörgen Andersson wrote: Everything is debatable, Look at the short video in an article I posted about here: The Lounge[^]
Exactly my point. There are articles claiming that this particular virus comes from the bottom of the stomach so the spittle from just talking won't have the virus in it. Sneezing or coughing might.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote: The problem is that nobody really knows enough about this virus
Facts:
• Those who suffer symptoms, whether mild or severe, don't show them for up to a week.
• The vast majority of people infected don't even know they've had it.
• Because it persists for so long on surfaces (and even in the air) it spreads like wildfire if the infection is mild, severe, or even asymptomatic.
• The heavy-handed approach, used in Asian countries, was hugely unpleasant for all concerned, but resulted in fewer people dying than are dying in the West.
• It results in a form of pneumonia that is particularly nasty because you don't realise that your lungs are filling with phlegm until they're almost full (so, by the time you're struggling for breath, it's almost too late -- and hospital staff are kinda busy).
So we know plenty.
Shelter in place, wear masks outside, and stay as far away from people you don't live with as possible. Doing otherwise is tantamount to murder, and, IMO, should be punished accordingly.
Anyone saying anything else (except the IMO bit, of course) is doing so for political reasons, or because of either stupidity or arrogance.
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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Mark_Wallace wrote: The vast majority of people infected don't even know they've had it.
You can't measure that. 
Mark_Wallace wrote: Because it persists for so long on surfaces (and even in the air)
Not a fact according to other articles (therefore proving my point that no one really knows)
Mark_Wallace wrote: resulted in fewer people dying than are dying in the West.
Apples and oranges, but also depends on what source you read. Plenty of articles indicate that China has massively under-reported their numbers.
Mark_Wallace wrote: Doing otherwise is tantamount to murder,
Drama much? 
Mark_Wallace wrote: Anyone saying anything else (except the IMO bit, of course) is doing so for political reasons, or because of either stupidity or arrogance.
And there it is. "Anyone who disagrees with me is either stupid or arrogant." That is called bigotry.
One thing is for sure, this "pandemic" has magnified the true colors of many people and exposed the bigotry many have. Your personality is one of panic and blind belief of the media. I bid you good luck in life.
Wow!
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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ZurdoDev wrote: You can't measure that.
It is being measured in China, South Korea, and even a couple of Western countries. It's a fact.ZurdoDev wrote: Not a fact according to other articles
According to all articles written by experts and specialists in the subject, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged.
Dr. Phil, newscasters, and twitterers with vested interests need not apply.
ZurdoDev wrote: Plenty of articles indicate that China has massively under-reported their numbers
Not according to all articles written by experts and specialists in the subject, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged.
Dr. Phil, newscasters, and twitterers with vested interests need not apply.
ZurdoDev wrote: And there it is. "Anyone who disagrees with me facts presented by experts and specialists, who have been working exclusively on this since it surged is either stupid or arrogant."
ZurdoDev wrote: That is called bigotry being neither stupid nor arrogant, and showing respect toward experts and specialists who know what they're talking about
I also show the same respect to other developers who know what they're talking about.
Do you? Or does that depend on their political viewpoints, too?
I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!
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