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Jörgen Andersson14-Mar-20 23:44

14-Mar-20 23:44

If there is a spread in universities and schools, shutting them down is the most stupid thing you can do. Now all sick students will go home to their parents...

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

OriginalGriff14-Mar-20 23:47

OriginalGriff

14-Mar-20 23:47

The idea is to get them home before it spreads among them, and then out from there.

"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
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Jörgen Andersson14-Mar-20 23:57

14-Mar-20 23:57

And you think that will work?

I think you will have a load of bored youth with nothing to do, that will start meeting up with each other anyway after a week or two, and still get sick. But now they live with their parents instead.
<edit>after reading Amarnaths response below I realize I'm a bit optimistic here</edit>

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

Thomas Daniels15-Mar-20 0:52

Thomas Daniels

15-Mar-20 0:52

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
that will start meeting up with each other anyway after a week or two

I believe this is less likely if they're home, because if they're still living around university, it's more tempting/easy to do so since most of your friends are living much more nearby.

Even if you assume that everyone is responsible, student housing with shared accomodities seems like a good place to catch the virus. Sure, you're not with your parents, but you cannot guarantee complete separation of the younger and older generation -- some students could still go to their parents, and students also still have to go to stores to get food. It's unrealistic that different generations don't meet there.

My university has moved all education activities to online platform, and asked students to go home if they could. So I'm home now and this is surely the place I'd rather be, despite being with my parents. It just feels safer for everyone.

Nelek15-Mar-20 1:49

15-Mar-20 1:49

Sorry... I clicked the wrong "reply" button. I am moving the message to the right place

M.D.V.

If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
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Nelek15-Mar-20 1:50

15-Mar-20 1:50

Still the numbers are different. If you meet your friends, you are moving within a moderated number of contact people. In the classes or in the cantine (college restaurant or whatever the name is) that numbers are much, much higher.

When I was studying, I had some lessons where we were between 250 and 300 people in the room. And our cantine had sit places for 650 people (getting used 3 or 4 times in a row at rush hours).

So yes... I see the point with "it is impossible to avoid spread", the point is not to avoid it, the point is to slow it down.

M.D.V.

Jörgen Andersson15-Mar-20 3:16

15-Mar-20 3:16

I'd even like to be more specific than that.
The point is to keep it away from the more sensitive or important part of society. Namely the elderly and hospital staff, respectively.

The vast majority of people getting hospitalized with Covid-19 are elderly. So those are the ones that should be prioritized to be kept away from the disease.
And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children. Or the children will be taken care of by the grandparents, because mom is a nurse and would have to stay home otherwise.

Counterintuitive? Oh yes!
But think about it for a while.

Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

Nelek15-Mar-20 8:28

15-Mar-20 8:28

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
And if you close the schools, a large part of the hospital staff have to stay home with their children.

I don't know in your place, but here, schools and kindergartens have a so called "emergency service". This means they are only "closed" for the average citizen, those parents who work in emergency jobs (medical staff, police, firemen...) and in some places even those who are part (and can prove it) of an important delivery chain for foods and 1st necessity items can still bring the kids to the school.

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Meanwhile, let's all bring a baseball bat and have a talk with the special kind of idiots that goes to the Alps skiing while there's a decease running amok in society.

Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for. D'Oh! | :doh:

M.D.V.

Jörgen Andersson15-Mar-20 9:01

15-Mar-20 9:01

Well, that solves the problem with the smaller children, but I've been thinking more about older children, teenagers and above. Those that don't do as they are told, because they are "immortal".

Nelek wrote:
Agree... or like in a city in spain... people closed at home and a group of elder people playing "petanca" in a park, they that are the ones who the whole damn thing is supposed to be done for.

I suppose they account for the "above" part above. Roll eyes | :rolleyes:

I actually suspect they're actually quite safe though. Being outdoors with continuous air exchange, and most probably keeping a much better distance to each other than children generally do.

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

Nelek15-Mar-20 9:11

15-Mar-20 9:11

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
but I've been thinking more about older children, teenagers and above.

Fair enough.

M.D.V.

W∴ Balboos, GHB15-Mar-20 3:43

W∴ Balboos, GHB

15-Mar-20 3:43

There is no perfect solution. Wherever you send people you are sending potential or active carriers and certainly additional vectors.

Was/is the OP's situation the best solution? I don't have experience in these matters but avoiding larger crowds should (at least theoretically) slow the rate of transmission. One infectious carrier will have fewer contacts. The China method would work = force all the students (and for that matter, everyone else) to stay put. Let the contagion run its course in isolation - bury the bodies and then, I suppose, "all is well". Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well.

It may be that every last one of us gets this - however, the longer it takes the more chance there will treatment/prevention will have been discovered and the better chance, if you need a ventilator it there will be one available.

Ravings en masse^
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

Jörgen Andersson15-Mar-20 3:58

15-Mar-20 3:58

W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
There is no perfect solution

God knows that you're right about that. Only complete morons are sure about the right solution.

W∴ Balboos, GHB wrote:
Keeping the students at school reminds of a recent event on a cruise ship in a Japanese harbor. That didn't work out well.

Maybe it was the best for Japan, imagine what would have happened in Yokohama if 700 potentially contagious people had gone ashore.

Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

W∴ Balboos, GHB15-Mar-20 4:15

W∴ Balboos, GHB

15-Mar-20 4:15

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Thing is, we don't know. Because it didn't happen.

Sort of one of my background mental processes when looking at options that could have (should have?) been taken.

It's like climbing a tree. Every now and then we have to choose between branches. The branches further availed us are based upon each choice. From our ever-changing perch in the tree we can often see options offer only via other paths we didn't take - and some might look better.

Be we need to pick a branch at each intersection and climb it - holding on for dear life no matter what the option because letting go is not a good option.

My younger brother puts it as "shoulda', coulda', woulda'"

Ravings en masse^
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

Jörgen Andersson15-Mar-20 6:09

15-Mar-20 6:09

I like the tree-climbing analogy.

And if I may expand on it: If you climb the same tree many times you learn the best way of climbing that tree.
If you climb many different trees you'll learn to estimate the best way to climb. (Or to bring climbing tools)
But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

Nelek15-Mar-20 8:34

15-Mar-20 8:34

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
But if you climb a tree every twenty years you might make quite a few mistakes on the way up.

And that's something I have already told a couple of times... the worst thing is... we will probably not learn from this as a society, some individuals will learn of course, but as a whole... we will have the same errors the next time. And then, the virus may be even more mortal.

M.D.V.

Jörgen Andersson15-Mar-20 9:12

15-Mar-20 9:12

Nelek wrote:
we will probably not learn from this as a society

One society actually have learned. And I hope we will learn from them.

South Korea decided after the Mers outbreak 2015 that they did not want to me caught unprepared again, so they have invested heavily in testing equipment since then and are able to test magnitudes more people than anyone else.
Their number of active cases isn't going up anymore, they have passed the maximum (at least at the moment), and that without shutting down society.
Note, I'm not saying we can do the same, because we don't have their infra structure.

Wrong is evil and must be defeated. - Jeff Ello

Nelek15-Mar-20 9:40

15-Mar-20 9:40

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Note, I'm not saying we can do the same, because we don't have their infra structure.

But we could have... And that's exactly my point with the "not learning effect".

M.D.V.

W∴ Balboos, GHB16-Mar-20 1:22

W∴ Balboos, GHB

16-Mar-20 1:22

Except for one thing - we each get to climb the tree but once.

There is learning - but for application to future decisions - and had we not had success and failures, the decision making would be based just what looks good immediately ahead. Had you chosen another branch anywhere along the way, your experiences would be different and your view of those now inaccessible other branches from your new location would make new "I should have . . . " choices seem better.

There's no rollback as once you have experienced something it changes all future perceptions (and thus judgements). If you like the tree analogy, consider that the early choices are the major branches and, as you climb as far as you can, the options are generally less influential. You location in the tree changes less with each decision - until our time has come.

Ravings en masse^
"The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits." - Albert Einstein
"If you are searching for perfection in others, then you seek disappointment. If you seek perfection in yourself, then you will find failure." - Balboos HaGadol Mar 2010

MehreenTahir14-Mar-20 23:48

MehreenTahir

14-Mar-20 23:48

Jörgen Andersson wrote:
Now all sick students will go home to their parents...

Exactly. How is that going to help the situation? Hmmm | :|

Nelek15-Mar-20 1:51

15-Mar-20 1:51

Read my answer above.

TLDR: It is impossible to stop. The point is to slow it down. And the numbers being home are lower than being in the campus.

M.D.V.

MehreenTahir14-Mar-20 23:46

MehreenTahir

14-Mar-20 23:46

OriginalGriff wrote:
So stop whining about what are in the broad scheme of things minor hiccoughs, and think about your duties to your fellow human beings...

You're right there but I, along with my professor was working on a ML project related to pandemics and as per plan it could have been in the favor of the situation but we had to stop.

Also we're on different pages here. So many people are still not necessarily taking precautionary health measures which perhaps could help more in controlling the situation than just shutting everything down. I'm also concerned how this shut down is going to affect the world economy. But I understand that we're living in different parts of the world which is why we might have different perspectives. Smile | :)

Mark_Wallace15-Mar-20 1:07

Mark_Wallace

15-Mar-20 1:07

MehreenTahir wrote:
I'm also concerned how this shut down is going to affect the world economy.

That's an easy one.

More people alive when it's over = more people to rebuild the economy.

I wanna be a eunuchs developer! Pass me a bread knife!

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter15-Mar-20 0:05

Kornfeld Eliyahu Peter

15-Mar-20 0:05

The problem is that we have no vaccine... So how many month will you shut-in those are not in real danger? A year?
It would be much better to separate those are in the danger zone and let others immune system do the work for them...
It will create a lot of sick people, but most of them (the real majority) will go home for two weeks and done with it...
When the percentage of inflected pass the 25% barrier we will see a magical slow-down of the spread...
As for now the fact that isolation slows down the spread has no meaning if you intend to release the people from isolation in a few months now - we will be back to square one then...

"The only place where Success comes before Work is in the dictionary." Vidal Sassoon, 1928 - 2012

OriginalGriff15-Mar-20 0:45

OriginalGriff

15-Mar-20 0:45

No, the idea is to take the strain off the medical facilities by spreading the infection out over a longer period. If 1000 people get it on the same day, that's a lot of stress on limited resources. If the same 1000 people get it at a rate of ten a day, then the stress on resources is lower in the short term and it can be managed better.

Instead of having 900 people on trolleys in corridors wondering when they get a share of the oxygen tank, you get a much smaller number on beds with "proper care".

And bored students at home is one thing, bored students in a hostel full of other bored, randy, pisshead / dopehead students is entirely another! (Or had you forgotten your Uni days? Laugh | :laugh:

)

"I have no idea what I did, but I'm taking full credit for it." - ThisOldTony
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