I have a boatload of stats for a team, and I want to determine the probability that they beat their next opponent. There's a wealth of statistical information about each team, INCLUDING statistics for results versus common opponents. Obviously, any previous head-to-head results should be weighed the most heavily. Next in line would be results versus common opponents, lastly, general match results.
I have no idea where to begin, other than I know I need to come up with the "probability" of a team A beating team B. I'm assuming that's on a percentage scale, so it team A is predicted to beat team B 23.7% of the time, they are most-likely going to lose. But for example, I'd then pick a number between 1 and 1000, and if that number is greater than or equal to 237, then they would lost, etc...
Any examples, or at least a starter that says "take stat a, multiply by games played, divided by blah, add coefficient...." you can see my math knowledge, which is close to nothing...