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Last Monday, the CP Daily News brought the link to Elon Musk Says He’ll Put A Million People on Mars By 2050[^]. This set me thinking: Recycling water is quite straightforward. Recycling oxygen not so.
I do not have enough information to even estimate how may tons of oxygen a million humans require a day. (A ton is a million grams, one gram per person.) Can anyone put me on the right track?
Next question: How many plants does it take to produce a ton of oxygen a day? Obviously, a huge pine tree will produce more than, say, a tomato plant. I guess that plants will have to double as both oxygen and food sources; there wouldn't be room of huge forests within that plastic bubble. Do food plants vary a lot in their oxygen prodction capabilities? With Mars being roughly speaking at 1.5 times the Earth's distance from the sun, solar radiation is at 40-45% of Earth levels; I guess that could affect the photosynthesis.
When the type and required number of plants, of various kinds, have been determined, we could try to estimate how much water would be bound in these plants and their soil. Transporting that water from earth would be a major taks. So would be an effort to break it loose from the south pole ice-cap and transport it the 2500 km to equatorial land, melt it and heat it up to a temperature suitable for the plants. With no oxygen available, we can't use diesel trucks for transportation, or any tool requiring oxygen for cutting the ice.
(We obviously could cover half of the Martian surface with solar cells to produce electricity for electrolyzing the south pole ice cap, rather than using the water for growing plants. That is certainly not in the "sustainable" group of alternatives - and how much solar panels would it require? I suspect that the panels would all have to be brought from Earth.)
I really liked the kind of analysis made in The World Without Us[^] by Alan Wiesman, and wish that someone would make a similarly scientifically founded evaluation of the realism of a one million people Mars colony. Well, I suspect that it could easily end up more like Solar FREAKING Roadways, Are they REAL?[^] (i.e. not quite as respectuful as Alan Weisman's approach). Either would be interesting reading!
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The engineering required for long-term presence on Mars is much more than provision of food, water, air, and power. On Earth, the Earth's magnetic field and atmosphere do a good job of protecting us. Mars has neither. The colonists would have to dig down to a depth of a few metres in order to protect themselves (and their crops) from radiation. We also have no idea how the radiation would affect the micro-biome that all of us carry around inside us. There are indications that quite a few diseases may be caused by the replacement in the gut of some benign bacteria by less benign varieties.
All in all, I would be very surprised if humanity has any permanent colony on Mars in 2050, to say nothing of a million people.
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
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Daniel Pfeffer wrote: The engineering required for long-term presence on Mars is much more than provision of food, water, air, and power.
Certainly! That is why I wish someone with a similar broad scientific background (and as many contacts in the scientific community) as Alan Weisman would take on such a project. When I read The World Without Us, there were quite a few points I never had considered before. On Mars there must be ten times as many!
It certainly would be fascinating read, but I guess it would be sort of depressing to a large number of SciFi fans.
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Check out Biosphere 2 - Wikipedia[^].
That's where they basically attempted to do this right here on good ol' Earth and failed quite spectacularly.
Creating a biosphere is extremely difficult (a massive understatement).
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There was a suggestion (and some design) by NASA about having something electromagnetically active at the Mars/Sun L1 point, such that it would divert the solar wind around Mars. At a million or so kilometers from Mars (which is about how far its L1 point is), you're talking about a far smaller device to shield the entire planet than trying to do it with an electromagnetic field actually around the planet. I found that discussion very interesting: theoretically, the device could power itself using the very radiation it would be deflecting... and other stories.
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The Native Martians will provide for and take care of them until they become self sufficient enough to take their land and exterminate them.
It's been 6 months since I joined the gym and there's been no progress. I'm going there tomorrow in person to find out what's really going on!
JaxCoder.com
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Mike Hankey wrote: take their land and exterminate them
Robert Heinlein[^] demonstrated that's not likely to happen.
Software Zen: delete this;
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Practicalities aside, I think it dubious that you'd find a million people willing to leave the lushness of Earth to die on a baron airless rock. It's not exactly Tahiti...
Regards,
Rob Philpott.
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I was thinking about that. I propose we start building a list of preferred candidates for everybody to vote on! 
If we start with all politicians and all lawyers, we should be well on our way towards a million...
Anything that is unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
Anonymous
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The problem with quotes on the internet is that you can never tell if they're genuine
Winston Churchill, 1944
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Never argue with a fool. Onlookers may not be able to tell the difference.
Mark Twain
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I believe Douglas Adams already figured out that we need to send the telephone sanitizers, hairdressers, jingle writers, accountants, etc.
I, for one, like Roman Numerals.
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We had a discussion in the coffee corner about who we should urge to volunteer as settlers. I guess creating a list in this thread could lead to the thread being censored 
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As someday it may happen that a victim must be found
I've got a little list
I've got a little list
Of Elon Muskés colonists, living underground
And who never would be missed
They never would be missed
...
(With apologies to Messrs. Gilbert & Sullivan)
Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-- 6079 Smith W.
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Rob Philpott wrote: I think it dubious that you'd find a million people willing to leave the lushness of Earth to die on a baron airless rock
Did Elon specifically say anything about people volunteering for this...?
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That makes it sound like Australia, except without all the poisonous critters.
"Time flies like an arrow. Fruit flies like a banana."
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Tahiti, it's a magical place.
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I first read that as "to die on a baconless rock". Which I suspect is also true.
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Quote: Practicalities aside, I think it dubious that you'd find a million people willing to leave the lushness of Earth to die on a baron airless rock. It's not exactly Tahiti...
Probably not a million, but we already know there are thousands of people already signed up for this trip. I could see millions attempting to go on nothing more than a hope of a better life.
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Elon's checklist for getting us on Mars
[ ] Solve propulsion problem to allow us to get to Mars
[ ] Solve renewable water problem
[ ] Solve renewable oxygen problem
[ ] Solve renewable energy problem
[ ] Build Starbucks
[ ] Transport people
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I wonder how he will space these activities in time from now until 2050. And what would happen if Starbucks is bankrupt before they get to that point?
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F-ES Sitecore wrote: [ ] Solve propulsion problem to allow us to get to Mars
Starship SN01 is being built in open sided tents in Texas today.
[ ] Solve renewable water problem
Land at a location where orbital sensing indicates large amounts of water frozen a few meters down in the regolith. Then start mining. The amount needed as an input (along with CO2) to the sabatier process to create the methane needed as fuel for the trip home and as a backup power source during sandstorms will dwarf that needed for human consumption.
[ ] Solve renewable oxygen problem
The previous step gets this one for free because you want to run your rocket engines fuel rich in order to keep the chamber temperatures low enough to avoid melting and burning them.
[ ] Solve renewable energy problem
Tesla and Solar City.
[ ] Build Starbucks
I'm pretty sure he can get Starbucks to pay him for the privilege of being the first franchise opened on Mars. (Just threaten to go to Dunkin Donuts, McDonalds, etc instead.) 
[ ] Transport people
Build a bunch of Starships. To fund doing this he's building Starlink; which is expected to a be $15-30bn/year printing press for money.
And although you neglected it, The Boring Companies tunneling machines can be used to dig the large underground vaults needed to build habitats on Mars.
Elon's reach may exceed his grasp; but all of the projects he's juggling feed into his long term goal.
Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason?
Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful?
--Zachris Topelius
Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies.
-- Sarah Hoyt
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You gotta love an optimist...
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There's a reason why space geeks joke about "Elon Time". 
Did you ever see history portrayed as an old man with a wise brow and pulseless heart, weighing all things in the balance of reason?
Is not rather the genius of history like an eternal, imploring maiden, full of fire, with a burning heart and flaming soul, humanly warm and humanly beautiful?
--Zachris Topelius
Training a telescope on one’s own belly button will only reveal lint. You like that? You go right on staring at it. I prefer looking at galaxies.
-- Sarah Hoyt
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Um, yeah, my post was just a joke to highlight how all major tech innovation seems to power nothing but vapid consumerism.
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did he actually say they would be alive?
scattering ashes in space was a thing for a while till the satellite makers complained that bumping into orbital detritus may affect their ability to um ...spy on the still living.
why not dump that useless crap (and more) on a useless rock that only sci fi writers and clueless dreamers care about?
after many otherwise intelligent sounding suggestions that achieved nothing the nice folks at Technet said the only solution was to low level format my hard disk then reinstall my signature. Sadly, this still didn't fix the issue!
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If you are into science fiction books I highly recommend reading the Mars series of books by Kim Stanley Robinson. It is about the process of terraforming and settling Mars. The trilogy of books takes place over several hundred years and is quite fascinating. The books are titled Red Mars, Green Mars, and Blue Mars.
Highly recommended!
"They have a consciousness, they have a life, they have a soul! Damn you! Let the rabbits wear glasses! Save our brothers! Can I get an amen?"
modified 22-Jan-20 11:10am.
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