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Experience.
It's not an exact science - it's guess work based on "how long this took me last time" plus a bit of "how accurate and complete is the spec?" with a soupcon of "what else do I have to do at the same time?" and some extra "padding time to make me look good". Occasionally there is also "How much am I being paid for this?" and "how much do I like this guy and want to do this?"
Complex.
So about 8.73 working days, probably.
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Does that include tea and fag breaks?
Veni, vidi, abiit domum
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Don't drink tea, don't smoke. So no.
Coffee breaks are extra, natch.
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Richard MacCutchan wrote: fag breaks
They prefer to be called gay and openly admitting to attacking them isn't good form.
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In the UK a fag is a cigarette.
Veni, vidi, abiit domum
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In the US a fag can also mean a cigarette. I was kidding about it's other meaning. Drag changes based on context too, it could relate to a cigarette or a way of dressing. Strange language, English. Gay means happiness.
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Think of a number, add 2 and multiply by 3.
Veni, vidi, abiit domum
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So based on Griff numbers:
(8.73 + 2) * 3 = 32.19
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Shhhh....don't tell everyone, that's our secret.
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No, no, no! You are supposed to think of a number, not me!
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Isn't it a slandered timing for writing code
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Nope - stealing my numbers is plagiarism, not slander!
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My lawyers will explain it all to you when they arrive.
Shouldn't be long now...
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I'm out of here bye. Will deactivate my account 
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Please ask the admins to re-activate your account; OriginalGriff was just joking, as he said here[^]
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I'm a slow coder. 
Veni, vidi, abiit domum
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i thougt 50.
using your formula i calculated 156...
now i´m thinking about the measure...
is it minutes, hours or what? 
finally, i chose "days"...
quite relaxing for me, but not for the Manager... 
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Clodetta del Mar wrote: is it minutes, hours or what?
Yes, of course. 
Veni, vidi, abiit domum
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Clodetta del Mar wrote: is it minutes, hours or what?
All of them: 156 hours, 156 minutes, and 156 "what?" (although I'm sure your manager will helpfully provide most of those )
GOTOs are a bit like wire coat hangers: they tend to breed in the darkness, such that where there once were few, eventually there are many, and the program's architecture collapses beneath them. (Fran Poretto)
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My technique isn't too far from that:
- Take a wild-ass guess at the time it would take if I were certain the requirements were firm and that there would be no interruptions while I'm working on it;
- Double the number;
- Promote the unit to the next higher value.
So if I figure I could knock it out in an hour under "ideal" conditions, I estimate "2 days." If my wild-ass guess is two weeks, I submit an estimate of "4 months." And so forth.
The remarkable thing about this approach, which I first suggested as a gag of sorts, is that it's proved to be pretty reliable in practice -- seldom more than about 10% from the actual time required, and never more than 25% off. Somehow it accounts flexibly for requirements changes, imposition of unanticipated constraints, distractions and interruptions, and acts of God. There's a lesson in there, somewhere...
(This message is programming you in ways you cannot detect. Be afraid.)
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Richard MacCutchan wrote: Think of a number, add 2 and multiply by 3.
After giving it some Deep Thought, I'll start with 12. 
"These people looked deep within my soul and assigned me a number based on the order in which I joined."
- Homer
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Take the number they give you and multiply it by PI (3.14), for going around in circles.
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