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done (by someone else).
I'd rather be phishing!
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'Twas me.
This space for rent
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I'd rather be phishing!
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upvoted because of spelling … 
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I see that UK bookies are offering a miserly 4-1 (5.0 if you prefer decimal odds) on England to win the World Cup.
Just curious as to how much this is effected by the "patriotic pound" - what price can you get on an England victory in less biased parts of the world?
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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4 to1 is 80% chance, ain't it ? That's quite optimistic. I would have said 0.1%, e.g. someone eventually breaks a body part of their choice of Neymar - so that all that faking comes true - in case they would stand a infinitesimal chance to beat Brazil on their way.
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Surely, you can't be suggesting that Neymar would ever indulge in a spot of acting? 
4-1 is a 20% chance, by the way - still a massive overstatement of our chances.
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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PeejayAdams wrote: Neymar would ever indulge in a spot of acting?
Noooo[^] ! Never ever [^] !
PeejayAdams wrote: 4-1 is a 20% chance, by the way
It depends[^] 
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The odds are a reflection of the amount of money being bet on England to win and not based on the real possibility of this happening. As a large part of England is currently going football mad the amount of money being bet on an England win must be rising incrementally.
The bookies have to be careful they make a profit out of this.
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Well, yes, the effect is always visible on markets for national teams and never more so than with football.
My suspicion is that there's a very healthy living to be made from simply laying against wins for your national teams and sporting icons, but I'm also pondering the notion of cross-border matched betting - e.g. I lay England in England at a really low price and someone in another country (let's say Spain) backs them at a more realistic one creating a pretty huge arbitrage. We'd then reverse the process if say, Rafa Nadal is playing.
I'm just curious as to how large the effect is, my suspicion is that it's massive - I'd have thought that England would be more realistically priced at somewhere around 15.0, so would love to know what's happening on the exchanges around the world.
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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Quote: Team Odds
Brazil $3.85
France $5.00
England $5.00
Belgium $7.00
Croatia $7.00
Uruguay $15.00
Russia $17.00
Sweden $26.00
current TAB.com.au market
Software rusts. Simon Stephenson, ca 1994. So does this signature. me, 2012
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Thanks! That's rather curious, pretty much the same prices for all sides as I'm seeing in England at the moment - do Aussie bookies trade on the UK exchanges?
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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TAB isn't, but a lot of the other big bookies here are offshoots of UK operators. Ladbrokes springs to mind. They all look over each others' shoulders of course, particularly with odds posted online.
Software rusts. Simon Stephenson, ca 1994. So does this signature. me, 2012
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There are certainly many bookies here who use multiple brands - groups of several sites that carry exactly the same prices.
As for looking over shoulders, I've always loved watching race course bookies (particularly back in the day of chalk-boards, tic-tac and no mobiles). They say that information can't travel faster than the speed of light, but it can!
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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Yep! Back in the day, I worked on a lot of the on- and off-track betting systems round Australasia. "Field observation" was always a lot of fun. Bookies and punters, assorted touts and spivs ... "colourful racing identities" was about as far as the press could go in describing them.
Software rusts. Simon Stephenson, ca 1994. So does this signature. me, 2012
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The odds on England are the same worldwide. Whether you bet 100 pound stirling in England or 1000 dingo dollars in Australia. Your returns will be 0.
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They offer a pizza for Italy to win. 
By the way, in the yesterday match the England team started well.
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CPallini wrote: the England team started well.
FTFY. And they will start one more time, and then the plane will start.
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Since they are going to play against Sweden, I won't bet on that.
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I would recommend Betfair. ATM the odds there are 5.6. If you still think that is outrageously low you can always bet against England at 5.7.
Betfair
The linky may be hiding behind cookies. If so you can see the odds at betfair.com. Make sure you go for "exchange odds" not "sportsbook odds"
... such stuff as dreams are made on
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I tend to use Matchbook and Smarkets, there aren't quite as many markets but the commission rates are an awful lot lower.
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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Nice didnt know those. I just assumed Betfair ruled the market.
... such stuff as dreams are made on
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I think that they owned the marketplace for so long that they decided they could ignore the competition!
Betdaq is another option - haven't used them for a while so can't comment but again cheaper than Betfair.
98.4% of statistics are made up on the spot.
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Yes... I looked at Betdaq ages ago, but they had so low volumes that "trading" was unfeasable. I like to hedge my bets, as soon as a hedge is available.
... such stuff as dreams are made on
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Not me. One of them[^]!
Shame on you!
I have lived with several Zen masters - all of them were cats.
His last invention was an evil Lasagna. It didn't kill anyone, and it actually tasted pretty good.
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