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Lopatir wrote: And you've already identified where the money is: People are getting lazier.... I'll take that mega sized TV, does it come with free delivery and installation? Oh, extra $100, sure, put it on the bill, $150 if I want it tonight? - done. The guys bring it inside, unpack it, hang it up, plug it in, and the total sum of programming: press the auto-tune button.
5 minutes and a free can of coke later - all done.
Easiest $100 ever made (even if it cost $50 for expenses gas/parking it's still $50 for 5 minutes work) - and in the UK alone that happens thousands of times per day.
I'm the guy who will hook up his own home theater system, but you couldn't pay me enough to do that for someone else, every day, for a living. Your "5 minutes of work" doesn't include the time to sit in traffic to get to the customer's home, get everything out of the truck, in bad weather, over some stairs, dealing with a-holes, etc.
If that's all the type of work that will remain for us humans - jobs that no amount of automation will be able to replace - then that's a sad prospect indeed.
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Oh I totally agree with you there man. People are getting lazier. What I'm getting at with that though is what we consider manual labor will change. Eventually, it'll be done by robots. Blue color work will exist in the future, but what exactly it entails will change.
Jeremy Falcon
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While it is clear that most (some) of us will be irrelevant as the content of the industry shifts to new things... However it is completely wrong that today software development understood better by the average people...
There is a new way the big ones force you to use a technology - they jump over you and advertise the new technology as the ever best solution to your customer's problem (or any problem for that matter), so you are locked in, but that does not make the customer someone who better understands technology...
Skipper: We'll fix it.
Alex: Fix it? How you gonna fix this?
Skipper: Grit, spit and a whole lotta duct tape.
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Only death is for free, and even that will cost you your life.
You know what an illusion this 'for free' stuff really is. It may be a bait to lure you into someone's walled garden where they try to lock you in and milk you as much as possible, or it is the bait to lure you onto some website and see as much advertising as possible (while 'voluntarily' revealing as much information as possible about yourself).
This will no doubt get even more extreme, that's why I don't buy stuff from someone's CrapStore (C)(TM)(R), use an OS where I can download and use stuff without having to use someone's CrapStore and most importantly, publish my stuff without being censored by some company and their CrapStore. And too much 'for free' is a good way to make me leave a website and not to lure me into using it.
I have lived with several Zen masters - all of them were cats.
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CodeWraith wrote: Only death is for free,
You haven't dealt with a funeral home, have you?
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True words.
Jeremy Falcon
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Recently, unfortunately, but that's more of a problem for those who are not dead yet.
I have lived with several Zen masters - all of them were cats.
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[Edit]
Oh, and ![Rose | [Rose]](https://codeproject.freetls.fastly.net/script/Forums/Images/rose.gif) I suppose
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Oh, I totally agree with you there. There's always a price for everything. I'm more so referring to the face value of course. But I totally agree with you... one way or another people will pay.
Jeremy Falcon
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The older I get, the tighter the mesh through which I screen my own assumptions about what 'will be' ... based on what seems like 'common sense' ... based on my perceptions of 'what is' ... and, the greater my tendency to question all generalizations, and prognostications.
The meme of the Sage/Philosopher/Prophet decrying the degeneration of the young is a persistent literary phenomenon.Quote: They [Young People] have exalted notions, because they have not been humbled by life or learned its necessary limitations; moreover, their hopeful disposition makes them think themselves equal to great things -- and that means having exalted notions. They would always rather do noble deeds than useful ones: Their lives are regulated more by moral feeling than by reasoning -- all their mistakes are in the direction of doing things excessively and vehemently. They overdo everything -- they love too much, hate too much, and the same with everything else.
(Aristotle)
I suspect that by twenty years from now there will be technical innovations whose impact will rival the "disruptiveness" of the steam engine, the airplane, the telephone, the movies, the internet, etc.
imho, the most disruptive change is happening now: the transition from a society where identity is "pinned" to work to a future of vastly reduced employment due to robots and automation. [^]
I also suspect, that some of the (disruptive) innovations will be related to biology, neuroscience, genetic engineering, and the control of (what we now struggle to define as) "consciousness."
And, I do suspect there will be calamities of vast scale, man-made (war, genocide, terrorism), and natural (disease, climate change related). We Homo Saps will keep on being the violent collectivist predators evolution engineered us to be, while, on other levels continuing to redeem ourselves in spite of ourselves.
I tell myself that I am happy with the idea I will leave this body well before the next score of years ends 
«While I complain of being able to see only a shadow of the past, I may be insensitive to reality as it is now, since I'm not at a stage of development where I'm capable of seeing it. A few hundred years later another traveler despairing as myself, may mourn the disappearance of what I may have seen, but failed to see.» Claude Levi-Strauss (Tristes Tropiques, 1955)
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They would always rather do noble deeds than useful ones
Over 2000 years, and nothing has changed. 
It's so ironic because in my (now more "mature") thinking, you should first do useful deeds before embarking on noble ones. 
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At the age of 47 I agree with what you are saying.
I think we could give young people a bit more slack.
"The children now love luxury. They have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise."
Socrates
That said the internet definitely seems to have accelerated communication and change. With even young people saying that every six months they are having to learn some new framework or technology.
“That which can be asserted without evidence, can be dismissed without evidence.”
― Christopher Hitchens
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Crazy to think that even Socrates had wifi to see this unfold.
Jeremy Falcon
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BillWoodruff wrote: And, I do suspect there will be calamities of vast scale, man-made (war, genocide, terrorism), and natural (disease, climate change related). We Homo Saps will keep on being the violent collectivist predators evolution engineered us to be, while, on other levels continuing to redeem ourselves in spite of ourselves.
Humans are lazy, we'll let the machines do the fighting for us...
and you know what happens next!
But anyway:
1. our kids reckon they're smarter then us, and,
2. as you said '[we'll] be gone,'
so they will have to sort that out themselves.
Installing Signature...
Do not switch off your computer.
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BillWoodruff wrote: The older I get, the tighter the mesh through which I screen my own assumptions about what 'will be' ... based on what seems like 'common sense' ... based on my perceptions of 'what is' ... and, the greater my tendency to question all generalizations, and prognostications.
I once heard a quote (forgot from where) that went something like this: "Only a fool and a wise man don't listen." I think it takes a wise person to really get that quote and to me I see what you're saying to be the same thing.
BillWoodruff wrote: Aristotle
That's an awesome quote.
BillWoodruff wrote: I suspect that by twenty years from now there will be technical innovations whose impact will rival the "disruptiveness" of the steam engine, the airplane, the telephone, the movies, the internet, etc.
I know we're a long, long way off from this, but did you hear that scientists have already teleported photons? They've been doing it for a while now actually. Here's one article[^] on it. Crazy to think.
BillWoodruff wrote: I tell myself that I am happy with the idea I will leave this body well before the next score of years ends
Just make sure you don't come back as a spider.
Jeremy Falcon
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I think there is too much hope that everything will be automated.
I'm in the same boat as you - I'm just not sure what is the next best thing.
Just yesterday I was talking to someone, there is tons and tons of technical stuff going around, but nothing seems to stick.
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Oh, I fully believe it'll take some time to get there. And there will be bumps along the way. And maybe we won't reach automation nirvana in our lifetime, but in a few hundred years maybe.
Jeremy Falcon
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Abhinav S wrote: I think there is too much hope that everything will be automated.
Almost nothing will be in terms of total work.
When a technology comes along that really works it speeds into the market place. Cell phones, heart transplants, etc. Airplanes were being used in war 10 years after the first powered flights.
Attempts at automation are not new. Been going on for a long time. There have been many attempts that have failed. People look at each new attempt and see doom and gloom while completely ignoring other automation that has been around for decades (as a child I watched documentaries on bottling plants). Even Amazon builds completely brand new delivery warehouses which still employ people as critical parts of the process.
Automating many human roles is hard. Consider the gas station attendant who seemingly does nothing but collect payment yet one must still account for the stocking, cleaning and even security of the store in the process. Not to mention dealing with complaints about the soda machine not working. How is that going to be automated? And done in a way that is economical in comparison?
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Would you please condense and interpret this post, I'm having a hard time reading this and playing with my XBox.
Someone's therapist knows all about you!
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Mike Hankey wrote: please condense and interpret this post
"The times, they are a-changin" [^]
«While I complain of being able to see only a shadow of the past, I may be insensitive to reality as it is now, since I'm not at a stage of development where I'm capable of seeing it. A few hundred years later another traveler despairing as myself, may mourn the disappearance of what I may have seen, but failed to see.» Claude Levi-Strauss (Tristes Tropiques, 1955)
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One of my favorites by Dylan...and yes they are. I wonder how many millennia old timers like me have been espousing like fears?
Someone's therapist knows all about you!
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Jeremy Falcon
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Quote: particular the products or services of the future that people will pay for since now we expect so much for free
Like subscriptions to my ISP, my TV provider, my smartphone provider, Netflix, Amazon and half a dozen other services that I have to pay monthly for, now that the days of PAYG - ie only paying for what you actually use - are all but over? IS that what you mean?
I don't expect things for free - but I'll damn well take them for that if I can when the only alternative is to pay a monthly fee for something whether I use it or not.
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Jeremy Falcon wrote: In my early 30s I decided to read a ton of self-help books
Ah, that must be how you got your psychology degree. 
The difficult we do right away...
...the impossible takes slightly longer.
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You'd be amazed what you can learn if you listen to people (women included) when they talk rather than pretend to. It doesn't take a psych degree to use common sense gleaned from listening. 
Btw dude... for real? You still upset about something from weeks ago? I touched a nerve apparently.
Jeremy Falcon
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