How do I write a sports simulation engine

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I have a boatload of stats for a team, and I want to determine the probability that they beat their next opponent. There's a wealth of statistical information about each team, INCLUDING statistics for results versus common opponents. Obviously, any previous head-to-head results should be weighed the most heavily. Next in line would be results versus common opponents, lastly, general match results.

I have no idea where to begin, other than I know I need to come up with the "probability" of a team A beating team B. I'm assuming that's on a percentage scale, so it team A is predicted to beat team B 23.7% of the time, they are most-likely going to lose. But for example, I'd then pick a number between 1 and 1000, and if that number is greater than or equal to 237, then they would lost, etc...

Any examples, or at least a starter that says "take stat a, multiply by games played, divided by blah, add coefficient...." you can see my math knowledge, which is close to nothing...

Posted 17-Mar-14 3:24am

andegre

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[no name] 17-Mar-14 9:38am

If your math knowledge is zero how did you get this job. Seriously its like asking "how do I fly a 747" and then saying I know nothing about flying. Your notion that there is a cookbook answer to this question is naïve. What do you think statisticians spend their time learning?

andegre 17-Mar-14 9:50am

Obviously I was exagerating on the "I know nothing" part. I used to know some, but haven't used probablity since college. I'm looking at getting more of a kick start and/or some guidance to start... Obviously what I do will be nothing compared to what statisticians are able/are doing...

[no name] 17-Mar-14 9:52am

Thank you for clearing that up. Cpallini has posted a very interesting response.

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CPallini · Accepted Answer · 2014-03-17T03:39:00

Solution 1

You could start form the "ELO rating system" page at Wikipedia[^].

Posted 17-Mar-14 3:39am

CPallini

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andegre 17-Mar-14 10:34am

Wow, never thought of that! (And I'm a Chess player on Chess.com everyday) Fantastic idea, even though this doesn't even factor in the statistics, which is interesting...but may be a better solution.