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UBX wrote:
I know at some point I'm going to end up driving a truck for a living
No, no, no, don't do it, truck drivers have more breakdowns that their trucks - believe me 
Keep on typing! 
The older I get the better I was
mikeo
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LOL ... that's funny. Driving a truck (or a bus) is exactly what I think I would do if I hang up on development!
-Max 
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Roger Wright wrote: The Wintel platform has had its day
For domestic use I tend to agree apart from folks that like to code, build their own media-centre etc..
For business, however, I can't say that I agree. There would need to be sea changes in too many areas in order for that to happen. It will eventually, of course, but not in the short term.
Henry Minute
Do not read medical books! You could die of a misprint. - Mark Twain
Girl: (staring) "Why do you need an icy cucumber?"
“I want to report a fraud. The government is lying to us all.”
I wouldn't let CG touch my Abacus!
When you're wrestling a gorilla, you don't stop when you're tired, you stop when the gorilla is.
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This totally depends on what you define as a PC. If you mean "a beige box with a monitor and keyboard" then yes, they will go, because they will be replaced by, finally, things with a little more style.
However, I don't think it will be tablets that take over, since typing on them is painful and the screen simply isn't big enough. I'll still need a mouse or pointing device because I don't want to ruin my back constantly bending forward to touch a screen sitting an ergonomically sensible distance away. The components can go inside the screen, or the screen can be my TV, but when I'm in my office I don't want a 40" screen. I want a couple of 19" screens, or maybe a single 30" wide aspect screen, and I want to be able to swivel it around so I can show things to those across my desk, yet I don't want it on the wall because I'd go blind squinting.
Maybe the keyboard can be integrated into the desk (annoying) or can be virtual using a Kinect style interface, but I'll get bruised fingers tapping my desk, not to mention carpal tunnel.
So we're left with a screen on my desk plus a keyboard and pointing device.
I'd say that probably still counts as a PC.
cheers,
Chris Maunder
The Code Project | Co-founder
Microsoft C++ MVP
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I know the killer hardware device, a good holographic monitor. If the viewing area did not need a physical bound then I would agree that the PC's days may be numbered. As it is, the home PC may morph into something but the LOB machine is here for the foreseeable future.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity
RAH
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I will go nuts. Cause the lap is reserved for girls
Will not hold devices there, never ever 
All the best,
Dan
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I do think one needs to widen the horizons a bit and start thinking about mobile applications, be it for iPads/iPhones (iOS), Android or Windows Phone, but I have a real hard time seeing a quick demise for the PC market, simply because, look at most companies today, what do they use? You got it, PC:s (laptops or workstations). I can't see that shift in a forseeable future, I mean just look at how quick most companies are at adopting new technology, I mean it's just in the last few years having your E-mail in the smartphone has become widely adopted. There are still a good percentage of companies that run Windows XP, since they are too cautious about their software platforms not being able to cope with Windows 7.
Now I'm not talking about the tech industry here, but the rest of the world that often seems to be forgotten when all these tech news are published. I, personally, hate to see nuclear powerplants ran by iPads, or hospital systems running on android tablets. It's fancy, and I like 'em for what they are, but they are far from fully capable of replacing my laptop when it comes to work.
The other thing is, gaming. Most games are released on the PC platform since it allows for developers to develop games for new hardware technologies. I mean, if you are to make a game for the Xbox 360, you know that you're limited to the hardware inside that box, built on technology from back in 2006. And the truth is the some of the technology from the gaming industry spills over into other areas aswell when it comes to 3D and visualization technology. And that in turn drives the development of faster and more extreme CPU:s and GPU:s.
I think the mobile platforms might have a fighting chance if they come with replaceable parts, so you can upgrade the graphics, cpu:s or memory of the units, but not before that.
Well, that's my 2 cents on the issue. Have a good day!
Wexelblats algorithm:
Pick two: 1. Good, 2. Fast, 3. Cheap
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Watch the sun set, drink whiskey and sing about the good old days
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computers and computing power is going invisible i think
there will still be programmers using pc's writing the software for the "invisible" devices but regular users won't need keyboards etc for consuming media etc
also i think the convergence between tablet type devices and web from a UI perspective will accelerate so that the experience becomes seamless for the users, which implies the programming paradigms will converge too
basically learn javascript
"mostly watching the human race is like watching dogs watch tv ... they see the pictures move but the meaning escapes them"
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l a u r e n wrote: basically learn javascript
Heck no. 
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Roger Wright wrote: The Wintel platform has had its day, and it's been a good run of 30 years or so, but its era is winding down. The article doesn't make any predictions, but I think the end will come sooner rather than later; that's just the way paradigm shifts work. When it does, people won't be replacing their old PCs with new ones, but will instead be buying prepackaged, integrated tools that just do what they need them to do with a minimum of fuss.
I suggest that you don't hold your breath until that predication comes true.
Roger Wright wrote: What are you doing to prepare for the sea change? Working on new skills, like mobile development, or cloud-based solutions?
So exactly what platform are you using to investigate those two technologies?
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I'd just pick up some other techno-thingie, and go with that. If you've been hacking for almost 20 years, and nothing else, there's little or no difference between platform A and platform B. There will always be computing, and as long as there is computing, there will be programming.
I've even picked up the bad habit of hacking apples...
--
Kein Mitleid Für Die Mehrheit
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This is the usual prediction by pundits.
People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong.
I found this statement from the article rather telling:
"Fully integrated hardware and software systems like Apple's iPhone, iPad and Macintosh are becoming more sought-after in the technology industry. Apple does not break out its segment profits, but it is the eighth most-profitable company on the Fortune 500. "
How does the MacIntosh gain in popularity fit into this equation? Suddenly everyone who thought Macs were too expensive are going to run out and buy them? Because it's the "smart thing to do"?
No, this is evidence that the writer of the article is covering up some weak research.
This is the usual analysis method where we take a trend, draw a line into the future, and say that "if nothing else changes..." But something always changes and if such analytic techniques were spot-on we'd all be working for Microsoft, getting our power from Enron, be completely out of petroleum, and everyone we know would have AIDS. Now we will each own multiple iphones, multiple ipads, and Apple will own everything else because that's where the trend logically leads.
Faugh. The home pc will die when it dies. By the time CNN will be aware of it it will have been dead for five years.
_____________________________
Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
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smcnulty2000 wrote: People who think they can predict where the industry will be in ten years, or five years, are generally wrong.
Actually they are almost always wrong.
Random chance insures some guesses will be correct.
For those that think that they can predict the future then I always wonder why they are not rich. Not to mention of course that they are seldom confident enough in their predictions to substantially back it up with a financial investment that reflects their prediction.
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Too darned right. I was being too generous.
_____________________________
Give a man a mug, he drinks for a day. Teach a man to mug...
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The more thins change, the more they remain the same.
I will do the same I did when they did not build any Ataris or Commodores anymore. I will find myself another nice and interesting thingie to program on and try to keep my humor as they struggle to reinvent all kinds of wheels to reach the same level we used to have.
"Dark the dark side is. Very dark..." - Yoda
---
"Shut up, Yoda, and just make yourself another toast." - Obi Wan Kenobi
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I think they're wrong. As others have said, offices are full of standard computers (desktop or laptop), and a lot of people still buy them. Tablets are quite impractical for most purposes (how did Apple manage to persuade people they wanted one anyway?) and I don't think that is a long term replacement market, and smartphones are good for what they are but they are not in the same niche as 'normal' computers.
As mentioned already the margins are low because it's a competitive market that lots of companies think it's worth being in. A margin that is consistently positive is profitable, I don't follow your logic there at all.
A 'prepackaged, integrated tool' never does what you actually want, which is why the paradigm of user-configurable (at least in the sense of being able to put whatever programs you want onto it, and not just through a single filtered source) personal computers is unlikely to go away.
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I think a PC-less world is the fantasy of clueless kool-aid drinking mac fans.
It will remain a fantasy until they can address the needs of the MMORPG market, among other things.
Sorry, but I cannot play my MMORPG on a phone or iFad.
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New skills, online solutions. No way am I going to actually start working for a living.
There is no failure only feedback
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You're kidding yes?
First: there are plenty of businesses that compete just fine getting margins at the 2-5% range.. I'm guessing you know some by name.. you just haven't realized it (most supermarkets have these types of margins). Tech players have been spoiled by high margins.. this is changing due to the transition of PCs into more of a commodity. HP wants its big profits.. thats fine.. but saying a company won't survive for long with lower margins is a tad out of touch.
As to Wintel surviving, there are lots of folks claiming their time is at an end.. but the wars ain't over yet.. and Microsoft has a history of listening to their customers. In the end they'll chase the direction that their customers are going. Their success, like any other company, is dependent on how closely they listen to the market. The past is the past.. Time will tell, but I'm not counting them out yet.
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Are you predicting that you can develop mobile apps on a mobile device, or develop cloud apps on cloud?
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Exit of PC hardware is not the same things as exit of software engineering -- apps still need to get written to some platform. HP is just realizing that the platform isn't going to be PCs forever and acting on this first, probably while it still has some extractable value.
As for SW engineering, yes, those of us that stay in the industry will have to upgrade skills. Since when has that been new? Its not like our skills are tied to PC hardware or anything.
As for the demise of Wintel, its demise is greatly (double plus greatly, actually) exaggerated -- I don't see the global population preparing to switch to Apple laptops and Apple tablets and Apple phones.
patbob
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In agreement with you, I think a lot of this 'windows is dead' comes under the heading of wishful thinking.. its been fashionable for quite a while now to bad mouth Microsoft.. I see this as another wrinkle on that formula.
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I think it's the same group that puts out the stuff about Linux taking over in the desktop space. We all know that ain't going to happen. Maybe it underpins a lot of the mobile platforms but it's presence there doesn't herald the "demise" of the "PC" any more than the presence of IOS does.
The market is changing, no doubt about it. Some shifting is going on. That doesn't mean the standard "desktop" (and I include laptops in there) are going to go away at all. Some people simply don't need anything as elaborate as a full-blown computer. My wife, for example, has almost completely moved off her laptop onto her iPhone. It makes sense for her. For me, though, I'm a Windows developer. Visual Studio doesn't run too well on a smart phone, nor will it ever. Neither does Roxio (which I use to convert video / audio), AutoCAD (which many folks use) and most of the high-end business applications. I wouldn't dream of trying to stay proficient as a pilot with anything less than FSX on my big 20" screen that's attached to my i7 box.
PC's still sell by the millions. The idea that there will be "no more" PC's ANY time in the foreseeable future is ludicrous.
-Max
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