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Sander Rossel wrote: I'm saying that we're just winging it, despite all those models, whether they work or not.
I agree with you 100% on that. However, it is interesting that the ones who make the emotional plea of "must save lives" are also the ones who shout, "We are using _Science_!" the loudest.
Also, in this case it would make the most sense that things can be opened up and the people who want to go out and the people who don't want to, stay in.
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raddevus wrote: Also, in this case it would make the most sense that things can be opened up and the people who want to go out and the people who don't want to, stay in.
I think the problem with that is that when the people who want to go out get sick, they overburden hospitals which would cause others to die.
And the hospital staff would be at high risk and overworked.
Also, you can't give everyone a choice, like what if those same hospital employees decided they wanted to stay at home?
And by saying people can go out if they like they put other people who don't have a choice to stay inside at a higher risk.
If it were so simple we wouldn't be in this current situation 
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Sander Rossel wrote: people are dying with an alarming rate
Sander Rossel wrote: they live by emotions
Exactly. 
Sander Rossel wrote: he'll say we all need to stay at home for at least a year to save lives.
A study just came out that found that the majority of people with Covid WERE the ones staying at home. 
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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That model predicted the overall shape of the curve, which this virus has followed in every single country. Where it screwed up was the peak of the curve. The ensuing economic chaos will kill far more people than this virus.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: I'm having trouble with the idea that a small mountain of countries would follow the output of a single application.
Politics. Nothing more than that. It is not by accident they used that/those model(s).
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Destabilization of world economies. Fear, fear, and more fear. Anger, anger, and more anger. Chaos, chaos, and more chaos. I don't know, who wold use this as a political tool? I wonder.
Here in the States, COVID-19 is being used against Trump, with the promise that a Democrat President would have saved the day, and COVID-19 would not be so much of a danger.
Politics. It's always about politics since the beginning of time.
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Slacker007 wrote: Destabilization of world economies. Fear, fear, and more fear. Anger, anger, and more anger. Chaos, chaos, and more chaos. I don't know, who wold use this as a political tool? I wonder.
I prefer to assume stupidity over malice.
Same 0H shows that the Germans noticed that the kill-rate is lower than the models predicted 
Scary idea that the economic damage done might be due to a few bugs and half the world using the same data.
Bastard Programmer from Hell 
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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I find it soooooo hard to believe that these models were not by design, but by stupid mistakes. Remember, the people doing these models are actually intelligent beings. Yes, that is correct, I said intelligent.
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Slacker007 wrote: I find it soooooo hard to believe that these models were not by design, but by stupid mistakes. Remember, the people doing these models are actually intelligent beings. Yes, that is correct, I said intelligent.
Intelligent beings doesn't make us infallible, as the issuelist on Github proves. One of the comments in a commit is
Lots of changes to make CT more realistic. Buggy. Sooooo hard to believe that there may be bugs in software? We're on a site that is littered with examples.
It is also not "models", but "model". I can't wrap my head around the idea that this data went unchallenged and that we copy/paste the result around the world.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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I am pretty sure that more than one model was used in all of this. NOAH uses over 150 models to describe the weather. Just saying...
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Slacker007 wrote: I am pretty sure that more than one model was used in all of this.
So was I. It is what one would assume.
Slacker007 wrote: NOAH uses over 150 models to describe the weather. Just saying...
We've been modelling the weather a lot longer, and many countries might not have had the resources to create such a model at the time of decision making.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Slacker007 wrote: NOAH uses over 150 models
And they all point to rain. LOTS OF RAIN!!! 
boom-tish
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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Intelligent doesn't need to be a synonim of clever.
As Del Spooner said to Dr. Susan Calvin: Quote: You are the dumbest intelligent person I have ever met.
M.D.V. 
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Slacker007 wrote: Here in the States, COVID-19 is being used against Trump,
I can't say if they are 100% true, and suppose that they are kind of biased, but here in germany there are several media saying Trump is using it too to his profit.
He would not be who he is if he didn't try to use it to his own benefit.
This is the definition of politics. Get a fact and twist it to put it in your agenda and make it look as it would have been your best decission ever. It doesn't matter which party.
M.D.V.
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
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Hear hear, Let all drink a glass of bleach to the perfect, absolutely perfect stable genius. 
On a serious note, I can fully understand why someone would fully support the ideology of one political party over the other, and as an outsider to the US I don't care, what they represent or which is in power. But Trump, ffs take your rose coloured glass off.
A Fine is a Tax for doing something wrong
A Tax is a Fine for doing something good.
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Imagine a war; would you prefer Biden to lead the attack on China?
Or Trump?
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Option C - No war
Why would anybody want to go to war with China. It would end up being a loss loss situation for both countries.
I'm a bit mystified why the US seem to mostly end up with geriatrics as presidential candidates.
Historically their better presidents are generally younger leaders.
A Fine is a Tax for doing something wrong
A Tax is a Fine for doing something good.
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RossMW wrote: Why would anybody want to go to war with China. It would end up being a loss loss situation for both countries.
Ehr, it wouldn't. And evolution is still a thing.
RossMW wrote: I'm a bit mystified why the US seem to mostly end up with geriatrics as presidential candidates.
I'm not.
RossMW wrote: Historically their better presidents are generally younger leaders.
An old saying "the people get the rulers they deserve"; but to be honest, you don't even deserve a Trump.
You deserve Biden, or Hillary. Oh, man can hope.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Eddy Vluggen wrote: you don't even deserve a Trump
No one does...
And don't assume I think Biden or Hillary were were/are any good. I put both of them in the geriatric pile with Trump.
A Fine is a Tax for doing something wrong
A Tax is a Fine for doing something good.
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I don't think any model was used at all, at least not initially. The way it was first reported, and we know we can trust reporting, was that based on actual data, not models (false data, but whatever) the death rate was around 4%. That's what started all of the hysteria. Not some computer model.
Social Media - A platform that makes it easier for the crazies to find each other.
Everyone is born right handed. Only the strongest overcome it.
Fight for left-handed rights and hand equality.
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The 4% number was based on registered cases and deaths, with the sidenote that not everyone was tested and the amount of infections may be a lot higher; only those very sick would go to the hospital and be tested. That's nice clickbait, but not a realistic number; a model was required, because you need a general idea of the actual spread, not just the measured and confirmed. That 4% is also not the number that was used to make policy;
So as head of the department of infectious disease epidemiology at Imperial College London since 2012, Professor Neil Ferguson has not been short of work. He [Ferguson] modeled the spread of all those outbreaks, advising five UK prime ministers in the process.
[..]
On March 16, around a month after the earlier interview, Ferguson delivered a bombshell 20-page paper to UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
The message was clear: 510,000 people could die if the government didn't abandon its current strategy of allowing the disease to spread.
Also,
0H wrote: New findings show a COVID-19 infection fatality rate of between 0.24 – 0.36% (as opposed to Neil Ferguson who claims the IFR to be just under 1%, perhaps 0.8-0.9%).
It seems like a small difference, just half a procent.
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Isn't that the same guy who took his own warnings so seriously that he had is married lover come visit him on multiple occassions during the lockdown... 
If you can't laugh at yourself - ask me and I will do it for you.
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Yup, same guy.
For those that missed it, or simply want a picture; here[^].
Bastard Programmer from Hell
If you can't read my code, try converting it here[^]
"If you just follow the bacon Eddy, wherever it leads you, then you won't have to think about politics." -- Some Bell.
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Celtic Woman - Dúlamán[^]
A very famous Irish folk song this week.
I was watching the movie Song of the Sea (2014)[^] when they started singing this song.
Great movie and great song.
Of course I already knew the song from Celtic Woman, but also from the likes of Clannad and Omnia.
Its been sung over and over making it probably one of the most popular songs in Gaelic.
Celtic Woman's version is my favorite though.
And even though I understand nothing of the lyrics it's very catchy 
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