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Greg Utas wrote: Don't confuse a bull market with brains. Preach, brother.
Greg Utas wrote: Puts for insurance are insanely cheap right now (VIX < 15). One of these days, I'd be curious to play around with options, but it just be tinkering. Figured it's better to specialize in an area that works for you rather than spread myself too thin and become susceptible to the nonsense because I'm no longer an expert in any one thing.
I'm into Forex btw, which is like equities, but for a country... the country's equity... currency. Some people hate Forex, and I get it... because it's the wild west with way more scams than stocks IMO. And, because its distributed and has no "real" good volume information, but I love it because it's extremely, extremely liquid (slippage is rare) and shorting isn't a big deal like in the stock market. Like, no such thing as a broker refusing to lend out low cap shares for a short... it's all money exchange. But, that's my bias.
Still love hearing about options traders that do well. It's interesting.
Greg Utas wrote: Spitznagel's The Dao of Capital is a good read for risk management, but you have to fill in a few details. I'll have to check it out one day. I've read so many books on the subject, I have no idea where I learned my risk management strategy from. But, it's close to a percent equity model, except I use a realized balance rather than equity to determine risk. And handling the downside, don't have a name for that.
Greg Utas wrote: He runs a hedge fund to protect against tail risk, so he doesn't quite give it all away. Noice
Jeremy Falcon
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Jeremy Falcon wrote: One of these days, I'd be curious to play around with options, but it just be tinkering. If you do, I would recommend you to look for the wheel.
The short meaning is: You sell the options to the people betting.
It is way slower, but if you do it correctly, it is pretty constant.
In the US way easier to use than in EU. Here the available options are mostly crappy and the local brokers suck or are way expensive. The only one useful for it is IBRK.
I went for stocks a couple of years ago, and my current balance sadly is dark red (around -15k, dunno for sure). But... and this is the only thing I really hope all Johnnies get told and kind of hear it.
- You are a little fish trying to get through a sea of big sharks. The market is a fvcking casino. Most of the time, there is no real logic behind it and you can only bet. There is no secure bet AT ALL. Only use money you don't need for living. Start with little and increase only in small steps, leave emotions outside, think fast, decide slow and act inmediatelly.
I am sitting now in many of my stocks, but:
- I never go for big risk. I imposed myself the limit of 3k cash in a single company, only broke that rule one time with 3,35k because I had a typo when calculating the number of stocks to buy.
- I knew that some of them could go south when I bought them. As they are startups, but I believe in their product and I think there still isn't everything lost. If it kicks, I will be there from penny stocks. If not, well... I knew it was a bet and I can afford losing that amount.
- I am pretty sure, than at least the half will be back in green sooner or later, because they are big companies. My problem was I bought in the bull market in the second half of 2021 and couldn't react in the market correction of the beginning of 2022 because I was offline for some weeks due to illness. As many say, time in the market usually beats timing the market. As I do not need the money invested in them, I'll just wait patiently to recover its value (plus inflation) and sell them when reaching black or light green.
- I got fvcked with a couple of companies explosions (i.e. Wirecard). As I said before, there is no 100% security.
- When I buy a set of stocks and they get a big bull push, I try to not be greedy and usually sell some of them to recover the investment. This way what happens later doesn't affects me anymore. I.e. I bought in the Meme Gamestop, sold a couple of stocks when one of the pikes and recovered my money. When I sold they were below my entry point, but they were "free stocks" as I had already recovered my original investment.
Some people said me... I should sell everything and recover at least those couple of hundreds that are still there. But I say, I really believe some of them will recover and, on the other side, those red numbers are the best teacher I will ever have in this topic and a really important reminder of what I wrote above these lines.
And in the overall: I started in 2018 I am in green in the big total, not much (less than 2k), but still green.
M.D.V.
If something has a solution... Why do we have to worry about?. If it has no solution... For what reason do we have to worry about?
Help me to understand what I'm saying, and I'll explain it better to you
Rating helpful answers is nice, but saying thanks can be even nicer.
modified 4hrs 20mins ago.
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Nelek wrote: If you do, I would recommend you to look for the wheel. The short meaning is: You sell the options to the people betting. You're a smart man. A lot of the manipulators/big bois manipulating the markets do exactly that. Say for instance, intentionally trigger a price spike to clear out people's stops so they can control the price with reduced liquidity. Say, if I want to go short with a big position, I'll put in a buy first to clear out some stops and then go short. If I'm big enough to control the market, I get my money back from the buy and then reduced liquidly makes price more volatile and so I get a much better chance of dropping the price further for my original intent to sell.
It takes a lot of horsepower to pull that off, but it happens... a lot. But, if you're ever been stopped out at a SR level, and the price went in your favor anyway, well you've seen this first hand. Which is why, IMO it's much better to know what the fudge is going on with the market than gizmos and doodads that just distract.
Nelek wrote: I went for stocks a couple of years ago, and my current balance sadly is dark red (around -15k, dunno for sure). But... and this is the only thing I really hope all Johnnies get told and kind of hear it. Thanks for being honest with the numbers. If it makes you feel better, I lost $60K USD in crypto... despite knowing better. Losing money is a rite of passage though. For Forex, not counting courses, tutors, books, etc. I've lost about $10k before finally getting to the point I could at least break even. Took years to get to that point. And then I stayed at the break even point for a while. Eventually, I moved passed that and was clocking in 5%-10% ROI a week. I hesitate to say that because it sounds scammy, but it was true. Got bored and depressed with the whole thing and stopped. Talk about self-sabotaging. Years later, I want to get back into it, but find a better class of peeps to hang out with to talk about it. Just to give you context on my background.
Nelek wrote: You are a little fish trying to get through a sea of big sharks. The market is a fvcking casino. Most of the time, there is no real logic behind it and you can only bet. There is no secure bet AT ALL. Only use money you don't need for living. Start with little and increase only in small steps, leave emotions outside, think fast, decide slow and act inmediatelly. Amen brother. And anyone who can tell you they can predict the market with their doodads on a chart is just lying man. The principles to winning at trading is much like the principles for winning at blackjack... market theory (so you know what is going on) and risk management will take you much further. The sad thing is, most people have no clue what's meant by risk management.
Nelek wrote: I never go for big risk. I imposed myself the limit of 3k cash in a single company, only broke that rule one time with 3,35k because I had a typo when calculating the number of stocks to buy. That's the best way to avoid being over-emotional about it. It's a game of numbers, not one single trade. Btw, start thinking in percentages. It's a psychological trick that will help you scale out. If I say 3k and then start doing 30K a trade then it sounds daunting. But if both those numbers are 1% of your account, it's the same number.
Nelek wrote: I knew it was a bet and I can afford losing that amount.
Nelek wrote: When I buy a set of stocks and they get a big bull push, I try to not be greedy and usually sell some of them to recover the investment. Greed has burnt me so many times man. You should know when you're getting out before going into the trade. Stick to it no matter what. Sure you can add on to a winning trade or exit early, etc. But staying in the market longer than you planned to by a large factor will burn you in the end... because price will turn. Specifically referring to trading here... not investing... which is something completely different.
Nelek wrote: Some people said me... I should sell everything and recover at least those couple of hundreds that are still there. But I say, I really believe some of them will recover and, on the other side, those red numbers are the best teacher I will ever have in this topic and a really important reminder of what I wrote above these lines. Everyone has advice in this area. And they're usually full of crap. Before you take their advice, ask them to show you their P&L for the past year. They won't.
Nelek wrote: And in the overall: I started in 2018 I am in green in the big total, not much (less than 2k), but still green. Nice job man. To me, the pros get back to the basics. Stuff like level 2 data isn't reliable as it used to be (depth of market, etc.) with all the active and automated manipulation going on, but at the end of the day... remember price is going to do one of two things... go up or down. You got a 50/50 shot. Roll the dice. Forget the clowns. Manage that risk and back test.
Jeremy Falcon
modified 1hr 10mins ago.
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Greetings Kind Regards
My 2nd major project upon start of my modest career was an options trading simulator for none other than Tony Saliba .
- Cheerios
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Oh, and don't get me started on the crypto scams... which I still feel for... despite being educated and knowing we were in a bubble. Sometimes people can be so convinced in their delusions they sound trustworthy... despite being 100% delusional on 100% speculation (which is a fancy word for guessing)... that even an educated person can go against their better judgement.
Nothing against crypto btw, but by the nature of a bubble, you better know when to get out.
Jeremy Falcon
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When I retired I thought I would "fiddle" around with the equities market, stuck the bulk of the funds into the wife's name and went for low risk, long term stocks. Then attempted to pick and choose some high risk, volatile stocks taking the advice of a bunch of online "experts".
3 months later having dropped a large percentage of the capital I moved the lot into the wife's choices. We don't make a lot but we don't lose much either.
Never underestimate the power of human stupidity -
RAH
I'm old. I know stuff - JSOP
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Mycroft Holmes wrote: We don't make a lot but we don't lose much either. Believe it or not, breaking even is a lot better than what most people do. Don't ask what I lost on crypto...
I will say this though, anyone who claims they can predict the market is lying. I mean, you can make money day trading, but it's a hard learned process the "experts" lie about.
Jeremy Falcon
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Jeremy Falcon wrote: there is active manipulation going on in most markets.
And yet, people still believe "experts" online... You mean the 'active manipulators.'
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I love me some RSI! It isn't biased, it just reports how strong the trend is at the moment. I always trade with the trend, when I trade. Now, that said, if today is not an up day for the market or the security that interests me, I won't buy even if the trend is up. I never go long on a down day, no matter the trend. But if the market and the security are down, and the RSI remains above about 70, I'm going short. Actually, I never use shorts; I buy Puts. The leverage really helps. I find that, in a volatile market with a moron leading the Nation, a Buy and Hold strategy is incredibly stupid, so I've been swing trading and playing options. I'm told that 80% of securities follow market trends in pricing, no matter their fundamentals, so it really makes no sense to try to fight the market, unless you have insider information.
By the way, Jeremy, I use a product called VectorVest for investing knowledge and training. They have been very good to me. They have a YouTube channel, and they will be hosting a weekly live event tomorrow called "Trending Thursday" there. Plan to be there, and I think you might be impressed by the amount of knowledge they have to impart. I highly recommend their service...
Will Rogers never met me.
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Roger Wright wrote: I love me some RSI! It isn't biased I love ya buddy, but gonna have to disagree there man. I don't think the RSI has a negative or positive bias btw. But, I do not think any indicator is the holy grail of anything. This is coming from over a decade of trading and going through many books, a personal hired tutor, self-study, years of back testing, years of watching the charts in real time. I've broken down the math. Written my own RSI in JavaScript. I fully understand it's a lagging indicator. Went through the novice teachings. Went through the advanced teachings. I could go on. I'm to the point now I can back test over a decade's worth of trades in seconds, using things like an RSI.
Did you ever read the book by the dude that invented RSI? I did. I've hosted meetup groups training other people. And so on and so on. I could go on, but it's been my experience that online... everyone tends to assume someone is a n00b or clueless when they post something. That's not me dude. I'm posting so people don't end up like Johnny and just lie about it to save face.
Roger Wright wrote: and the RSI remains above about 70 If you believe in that, you shouldn't, but if you're still at that level, don't forget to get confirmation in a higher timeframe. Not that it means squat, but if it gives you warm fuzzies.
Roger Wright wrote: , in a volatile market with a moron leading the Nation, This is why I like you, man.
Roger Wright wrote: I'm told that 80% of securities follow market trends in pricing, no matter their fundamentals, so it really makes no sense to try to fight the market, unless you have insider information. Going with the RSI isn't necessarily going against the market. It's an oscillator, not psychic pixie dust. Which means, it could stay in overbought for along time while the market continues to go up. My point was pointing out the folly in assuming it can predict anything. But, totally agree you shouldn't fight the market.
Roger Wright wrote: By the way, Jeremy, I use a product called VectorVest for investing knowledge and training. They have been very good to me. They have a YouTube channel, and they will be hosting a weekly live event tomorrow called "Trending Thursday" there. Plan to be there, and I think you might be impressed by the amount of knowledge they have to impart. I highly recommend their service... Thanks buddy, but I wouldn't be going unless I was training and they paid me. And, I already did the training others thing. Anyone that talks RSI over market theory, for instance, are not the people I'd trust. Their P&Ls I seriously doubt will be ever shown, without being doctored, etc.
Btw, the reason I stopped the meetup stuff is because I got tired of the BS. People were so egotistical about it all (not saying you) and lying about everything. Dunno what it is about money, but thar be a lot of ignorant folks with egos being fake and pretending in that circle. And they'll never show you their honest P&Ls.
Jeremy Falcon
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LOL!!! RSI is great, and I do use it, but it's not my GOTO. I like various combinations of moving averages, as well as a thing called the TTM Squeeze. But my real favorite is Options trading. I've been trading stocks since years before I passed the NASD Series 7 exam in 1987, but never touched options until about 5 years ago. What fun!
Will Rogers never met me.
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Roger Wright wrote: but never touched options until about 5 years ago. What fun! One of these days I'd want to play around with options too. I'm a Forex guy. Despite the bad press it gets because it's the wild west with so many scams, I love it. So, just focused on that.
Jeremy Falcon
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If you are interested in 6502 (and/or computing history) this video is absolutely worth a watch.
He has a bunch of quality videos for retro but this one is great for the history.
The 6502 CPU Powered a Whole Generation! - YouTube[^]
EDIT: Includes interview with Bill Mensch (one of original designer/creators of 6502).
modified yesterday.
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Bender from Futurama CPU of choice!
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That's the chip i learned to code on! I love that lil guy.
Check out my IoT graphics library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/gfx
And my IoT UI/User Experience library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/uix
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honey the codewitch wrote: That's the chip i learned to code on!
I'm very curious about a number of things. If you don't want to answer, no pressure I understand.
What year were you learning 6502?
Were you learning this on your own? Or part of some school?
What was your programming rig? IDE? Device programmer? etc.
I'm thinking you learned this back in the 80s or 90s maybe and I'm curious how you had access to that stuff? I remember having a C64 and having no idea how to program it to do anything worthwhile because all I had was BASIC and the other alternative was 6502 Assembly but I didn't know how / where I would've learned that back then.
Just curious.
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1986, on the venerable Apple ][ machines. I got a ][gs at home but i did most of my coding at school labs at the time. I was 8 so there was no programming classes at the time, but we at least had apple labs. Most of the kids played Oregon Trail. I was still into building frankenbikes and stuff in my off time before i really caught the coding bug so like i said, mostly i did it at school to kill time, a bit at home too though, especially as I gained interest.
I learned on my own starting with the BASIC programming manual that came with the Apple ][gs. I was using it in 8-bit 6502 compatibility mode until like a year later.
raddevus wrote: What was your programming rig?
Apple ][gs in 8-bit mode, and Apple ][e's mostly. Though a friend had a ][c, and later i got a commodore.
raddevus wrote: IDE?
Surely you jest! I eventually picked up TML pascal on the ][gs but before that I had no IDE. Just a prompt and either BASIC, asm, or manual machine code (before i learned about the mini assembler)
raddevus wrote: Device programmer?
First one was an Arduino board in more recent years.
raddevus wrote: I'm thinking you learned this back in the 80s or 90s maybe and I'm curious how you had access to that stuff?
Yeah, my parents bought a ][gs as soon as it was released, and we had apple labs at our very well funded schools.
Libraries gave me access to computer mags like Byte. I learned machine code by more or less reverse engineering the code I'd find in magazines. I can't remember it now because I switched to asm as soon as I discovered the ][c and later had it.
Check out my IoT graphics library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/gfx
And my IoT UI/User Experience library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/uix
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Wow! You were extremely young to begin learning to code like that.
Yeah, the question about IDE was a bit off
Fantastic information. Thanks for sharing!
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FWIW I learned 6502 assembler in the '80s on my Acorn Atom, that had a BASIC with a brilliant inline 6502 Assembler; you could seamlessly interleave BASIC and 6502 code. The manual documented lots of information about the internals and OS API which was also very useful.
The Atom, for those who aren't familiar, was the predecessor to the BBC Micro, itself the predecessor to the Acorn Archimedes (which was technically way ahead of the Lisa and Macintosh) and Acorn Computers begat ARM. Heady days! "Acorn Computers" was a prescient name for something small that grew so big and strong, doncha think?
I still have my Acorn Atom, with manuals, but no suitable TV for video output.☹️
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Did not know Acorn was the ARM predecessor. Neat.
Check out my IoT graphics library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/gfx
And my IoT UI/User Experience library here:
https://honeythecodewitch.com/uix
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ARM == Acorn Risc Machine
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FWIW I learned 6502 assembler in the '80s on my Acorn Atom, that had a BASIC with a brilliant inline 6502 Assembler; you could seamlessly interleave BASIC and 6502 code. The manual documented lots of information about the internals and OS API which was also very useful.
The Atom, for those who aren't familiar, was the predecessor to the BBC Micro, itself the predecessor to the Acorn Archimedes (which was technically way ahead of the Lisa and Macintosh) and Acorn Computers begat ARM. Heady days! "Acorn Computers" was a prescient name for something small that grew so big and strong, doncha think?
I still have my Acorn Atom, with manuals, but no suitable TV for video output.☹️
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Saw the 6502 reference in the newsletter, so, got to here.
In 1980, my high school got 3 Commodore PET computers - 16K each. Commodore had a deal - buy 2 get one, so a number of teachers or parents pooled their many and bought them. A friend's dad bought one, so we had ready access to it. Not sure how we got access to the programming manual, but we did.. and taught ourselves.
Jim Butterfield wrote an assembly program that we got a copy of and the assembly code list, so we taught ourselves 6502 assembler as well.
The following year, the school got 12 more computers, so access to more people.
Still, we simply taught ourselves.
Programs I remember writing: a two-person shooting games with cowboys, solitaire Hearts, a Star Trek type kill the aliens game, and, in assembly, fill the screen with random characters and execute a bubble sort to sort the screen characters.
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Tim Carmichael wrote: Jim Butterfield wrote an assembly program that we got a copy of and the assembly code list, so we taught ourselves 6502 assembler as well.
Wow! Amazing.
I had a Coleco Adam in 1984 or so and I would type programs into the BASIC interpreter and they would invariably fail. Once they would fail I was lost for how to fix them. I'm pretty sure my brain did not use any logic back then. Only emotions. But I would sit and stare at the computer, however, that did not fix any of the bugs.
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I had the later 6510 to start with... Which is different but not on the instruction level...
"If builders built buildings the way programmers wrote programs, then the first woodpecker that came along would destroy civilization." ― Gerald Weinberg
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